Next week's iron ore market consolidation

2021-03-29

The iron ore market was in a narrow swing this week. Zhou Neipu refers to the shock around $160. Since Tangshan announced an extension of the production limit period at the beginning of the week, the government asked 23 steel companies to limit production by 30% to 50% during March 20-31. If the latest production restriction guidelines are followed, the iron ore produced by sintering plants and blast furnaces will be reduced by 30%, which will affect the overall demand for iron ore. the market sentiment is pessimistic, driving the market down. In terms of steel plant procurement, the purchasing preference of steel plant has shifted to higher-grade raw materials. Because of the limitation of capacity utilization rate and high profit rate of steel, the plant needs ore powder with higher molten iron ratio. This is not difficult to see from the spread of the 65 and 62 indices, which have widened to $26.8. In terms of supply, Australia has a certain reduction in shipment affected by thunderstorm weather, and stable delivery of Brazilian maintenance will recover. However, the volume of Australian shipments to China in the early stage will continue to decline due to overseas diversion, which is reflected in the low position since the first quarter, but the port Australia Pakistan inventory is at a high level in nearly two years.




From March 15 to March 21, the total volume of Brazilian iron ore shipments in Australia was 22939000 tons, with a decrease of 476000 tons on a month-on-month basis; the total volume of Australian shipments was 16.639 million tons, with a decrease of 1252000 tons on a month-on-month basis; among them, the volume of Australian shipments to China was 13.365 million tons, a decrease of 125000 tons on a month-on-month basis; the total volume of Brazilian shipments was 6.3 million tons, with an increase of 776000 tons on a month-on-month basis. In terms of arrival, the total iron ore from Liugang, North China, reached port 9.5267 million tons in the 11th week (2021.03.13-2021.03.19), with a 12.98% decrease on a month-on-year basis, an increase of 0.61% year-on-year. Although both shipment and arrival have decreased, the latter has a greater impact than the impact of production restrictions on iron ore consumption. Market news said that the spot supply of block minerals in April was tight, and the price of pu'block was $0.5425. With the strength of the iron link futures, the spot market is expected to follow the rise. In terms of domestic mines, the external mines are weaker and the internal powder businesses are pessimistic. As a result of environmental protection, Tangshan has strict production limit, and steel enterprises have been greatly depressed. For example, Guoyi steel enterprises fell 160 to 1250, and the market also followed by a decline of about 70-85, and the overall decline was disastrous. However, the market decline has gradually narrowed due to the fact that traders are mostly in a wait-and-see state and the outflow of local sources is serious. Liaoning market, although the business is mostly watching, and the deep decline around, plus the new Fushun Steel first cut 30, the market trend fell 30-40. It is expected that the domestic mining market will be stable and medium-term and wait-on-see operation in the short term, with some adjustment range of about 10 yuan.


This week, the domestic leading steel plant powder procurement overall reduced the main, this week around 160 dollars of shocks, Tangshan production restrictions caused market concerns, steel companies in the trend of a large pressure, down more than 100 yuan, the market as a whole, the overall decline, the market has no obvious operation of buying goods, traders are mostly in the wait-and-see state. The mining industry in Shandong has been resumed in succession, some of which have been completed in safety acceptance, but the pace of resumption is slow, resources are still tight, and steel enterprises' inventory is also at a low level. However, the local price has been lowered with the price of five mines. The price of Shandong market has not been significantly reduced. In Northeast China, steel enterprises are cautious in purchasing, market inquiry is relatively cold, traders are mainly active in shipping, and the surrounding prices fall deeply, and market prices are in a downward trend in the short term. Under the current situation of large fluctuation, the business operation is more cautious, and it is expected that the price of powder purchase in steel plant will be stable and weak to adjust next week.